Zaineb al-Assam, Head of Middle East and North African Forecasting at intelligence specialists Exclusive Analysis told a briefing held by the International Underwriting Association this week that 2010 was very likely to see the US look to exert more pressure on the Iranian government to open up its nuclear facilities to international scrutiny.

 “Further sanctions be they imposed by the United Nations or unilaterally are highly likely as the dispute between Iran and the international community over its nuclear programme shows no signs of being resolved,” she said. “It is expected that there will a range of sanctions imposed with refined oil product exports to Iran to be targeted.”

However Ms al-Assam continued; “There is a real possibility that pressure will be placed on the international insurance community and Lloyd’s to cease to offer coverage to certain Iranian risks particularly companies owned by the Revolutionary Guard.”

There are also warnings that international energy facilities and interests in Yemen may well be targeted by Al-Qaeda, which has established a significant presence in the country since January last year, she added.

The recent failed attempt to ignite an explosive device on an aircraft on Christmas Day was traced back to the Yemen where the would-be suicide bomber had received training.

Ms Al-Assam said Al-Qaeda had built up significant ties with various tribes in Yemen and that international energy facilities in the south of the country would be targeted.

“Internationally-owned firms in the country are attractive to Al-Qaeda with US targets and aviation assets particularly at risk,” she explained.