About six years ago I was sitting in the Fairmont Hotel in Monte Carlo at the Rendezvous with Professor Bill McGuire from the UCL Benfield Hazard Research centre talking all things global warming.
He said that in the years to come if the weather patterns continued to change the Rendez-vous might have to be held in Sunderland (a vibrant city in the North East of England) as the temperatures would be too hot in Monaco for the annual gathering.
While clear skies are forecast this week the temperature might start to rise as the event wears on, as the underwriters and brokers dig into their positions for the January renewals.
The worst catastrophe loss year in history has already been recorded with the North Atlantic hurricane season and the Pacific typhoon season still to play out. Therefore it is natural that underwriters say the correction is on the way.
Not so, say the brokers who believe that while some of the cat hit areas rates will rise, for the rest it is business as usual as overcapacity abounds and pressure on rates continues.
Underwriters have said they want to see an end to the parochial viewpoint of brokers and cedants that the losses of the few need not to be shared across the many.
Rating agencies are playing the waiting game saying that the time for downgrades is not yet upon us. Stable in outlook but with a slight leaning towards the negative.
There is no talk of things degenerating to the point where it is “underwriting slips at dawn” but it might heat up as the parties and the drinks get into gear.